Reply to Fellow Manchurian (25-10)

Hello, Brother Xuzhou:

You’ve raised an excellent question about the timing of independence. Indeed, major powers like China, the US, and Russia currently possess formidable strength. Even places like Xinjiang, which face the dual escalation of ethnic and religious conflicts, have been unable to achieve independence, let alone Manchurian independence, which is still in its embryonic stage.

Black Soil Brotherhood believes: Protecting local interests > Anti-communism. The problems Manchuria currently faces are primarily due to China’s internal colonialism (resource plunder, sharp population decline, and most importantly, the loss of discourse power). We Manchurians must first develop a sense of boundaries—that is, we must distinguish between who is Manchurian and who is from within the Pass. This work is very fundamental and very necessary. Once this consciousness reaches a considerable degree of consensus in Manchurian society, independence is actually not far off.

We believe this process will not be short. Regarding whether to pursue independence, we Manchurians must prepare for two scenarios. If China shows no signs of collapse, then we Manchurians need powerful defenders of local interests to protect Manchurian interests to the maximum extent. If China shows signs of collapse, then the preparatory work we’ve done will play a tremendous role. In short, Manchuria cannot be sold out in confusion like in the first half of the 1920s, only to awaken decades later and treat scar literature as glory.

Regarding the path forward, we are also communicating with other Manchurian organizations. Currently, there are several directions:

Model 1: Fission-style small group discussions + exchanges. This is the Polish model. We see that Poland’s Solidarity trade union was established in 1980 and was soon banned, achieving electoral victory only after 9 years. During this period, many small political parties or academic societies were established in Polish society, with personnel communicating and exchanging between these societies. This essentially absorbed elite elements from society. The mobilization speed was slow, but the foundation was extremely solid.

Characteristics: Depends on changes in political environment, solid grassroots foundation, does not strongly depend on external pressure.

Model 2: Restoration of Manchukuo. This involves restoring the historical Manchukuo, led by the Concordia Association and the Manchukuo government-in-exile, increasing exposure through overseas pro-democracy movements and fundraising from various national governments. This model would achieve relatively high visibility—many Manchurians have heard of them. However, it’s reported that some non-Manchurians may participate, which could create a sense of alienation among Manchurians.

Characteristics: High exposure, fundraising from other countries, unknown local identification.

Model 3: Local strongman rebellion. This is a script that Manchurians have performed many times in history, from An Lushan to the Wanyan clan to Nurhaci and Zhang Zuolin (even to Bo Xilai), expecting an ambitious figure to emerge from Manchuria’s elite class to defeat China and write a legend. Whether such a person exists, whether they can succeed—these are unknowns for each of us. But if such an ambitious figure truly stands up, we would be happy to see it happen.

Characteristics: Local strongman, historical script.

Furthermore, my personal feeling is that these three models do not conflict and may even have chemical reactions with each other. For individuals, we hope our fellow Manchurians will love their hometown more, love the people around them more, and use this as a starting point to develop their own political path.

I’ll write this much for now.

Wishing our compatriots smooth lives and wishing Manchuria an early revival.

Black Soil Brotherhood